The following links are just news items and opinions that pass my desk throughout the week. I don’t necessarily support or advocate any of the items, they are just interesting reads.
How San Francisco Became A Failed City – But I do need you to love San Francisco a little bit, like I do a lot, in order to hear the story of how my city fell apart—and how it just might be starting to pull itself back together.
Because yesterday, San Francisco voters decided to turn their district attorney, Chesa Boudin, out of office. They did it because he didn’t seem to care that he was making the citizens of our city miserable in service of an ideology that made sense everywhere but in reality. It’s not just about Boudin, though. There is a sense that, on everything from housing to schools, San Francisco has lost the plot—that progressive leaders here have been LARPing left-wing values instead of working to create a livable city. And many San Franciscans have had enough.
On a cold, sunny day not too long ago, I went to see the city’s new Tenderloin Center for drug addicts on Market Street. It’s downtown, an open-air chain-link enclosure in what used to be a public plaza. On the sidewalks all around it, people are lying on the ground, twitching. There’s a free mobile shower, laundry, and bathroom station emblazoned with the words dignity on wheels. A young man is lying next to it, stoned, his shirt riding up, his face puffy and sunburned. Inside the enclosure, services are doled out: food, medical care, clean syringes, referrals for housing. It’s basically a safe space to shoot up. The city government says it’s trying to help. But from the outside, what it looks like is young people being eased into death on the sidewalk, surrounded by half-eaten boxed lunches.
A couple of years ago, this was an intersection full of tourists and office workers who coexisted, somehow, with the large and ever-present community of the homeless. I’ve walked the corner a thousand times. Now the homeless—and those who care for the homeless—are the only ones left.
During the first part of the pandemic, San Francisco County lost more than one in 20 residents—myself among them. Signs of the city’s pandemic decline are everywhere—the boarded-up stores, the ghostly downtown, the encampments. But walking these streets awakens me to how bad San Francisco had gotten even before the coronavirus hit—to how much suffering and squalor I’d come to think was normal. Read More > in The Atlantic
Downtown S.F. on the brink: It’s worse than it looks – Against the backdrop of shuttered, graffitied storefronts and other detritus left in COVID-19’s wake, including on this two-block stretch of Kearny Street, professionals can once again be seen en route to their now sparsely populated offices or the few cafes and restaurants that survived their absence, now eager for their precious patronage. Some new businesses have opened, and tourism has ticked up.
Don’t be fooled. The downtown area, the city’s primary economic driver, is teetering on the edge, facing challenges greater than previously known, new data shows. The wounds suffered by the economic core are deep, and city officials have yet to come up with a plan to make the fundamental changes that some economists and business leaders argue could make the area thrive again.
Before the pandemic, office work was responsible for a whopping 72% of the city’s gross domestic product, according to the Controller’s Office — work that was heavily concentrated in the Financial District, the Market Street corridor, the Embarcadero and Mission Bay. A precise definition for downtown doesn’t exist, and various city agencies use different boundaries, with some regarding it as the northeast portion of the city.
When all office work shut down, BART ridership dropped catastrophically, and it is not projected to recover fully until the 2029-30 fiscal year at the earliest. The transit system’s looming deficit has given rise to whispers of a new regional tax to fill the gap. Without commuters spending money near their San Francisco offices each day, other downtown businesses closed, destroying the incomes of many who could ill afford it.
It has been a year since vacant office-space rates soared to their highest levels since the 2008 Great Recession, as some business activity has picked up. And while other major cities face large numbers of workers not going back into offices, San Francisco’s numbers are among the highest nationwide.
The San Francisco metropolitan area has consistently lagged behind nearly all other major urban centers in worker returns, according to office-occupancy trend data from Kastle Systems, a security company that monitors access-card swipes at client buildings.
In San Francisco’s downtown area specifically, office attendance has been even lower than reported. At The Chronicle’s request, Kastle provided swipe data for the eight ZIP codes that make up the city’s office-heavy northeast. The data shows the rate of worker return, relative to pre-pandemic levels, has not broken 30% and was 26.4% the week of May 18, the most recent period the company provided. Read More > in the San Francisco Chronicle
A Rise in Suicides by Young Children Leaves Families Searching for Answers – Before 10-year-old Kelly Wright killed herself, there was no warning, says her father, Stuart Wright. The bubbly child who loved to draw, hike and go canoeing was showing her parents dance moves the night before she died, Mr. Wright says.
Kelly didn’t seem sad or withdrawn; she excelled in school and made friends easily. And Mr. Wright couldn’t imagine that a 10-year-old could even consider suicide.
“I’m never going to make any sense of it,” said Mr. Wright, 63, who was living near Tampa, Fla., at the time of his daughter’s death in January 2020.
The number of children dying by suicide has risen dramatically in recent years. Parents often don’t know that their children are having suicidal thoughts, new research shows. Among females ages 10 to 14, the rate of suicide more than tripled between 2007 and 2020, from 0.5 per 100,000 to 2 per 100,000 according to data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Among males the same age, the rate jumped from 1.2 per 100,000 to 3.6 per 100,000 over the same period.
Although the numbers are tiny compared with the number of older adolescents and adults who die by suicide, it is now the second leading cause of death among children in this age group.
Psychologists and psychiatrists say they don’t know for certain why the incidence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors is rising among American children. The numbers upend a long-held belief that children who haven’t hit puberty yet don’t think about killing themselves or, if they do, that those thoughts are fleeting.
New research is uncovering risk factors in younger children like family conflict and early exposure to alcohol. Depression is most commonly associated with suicidal thoughts in older teens and adults, but in younger children scientists are finding that ADHD and behavior problems are also closely linked to suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Read More > in The Wall Street Journal
Electric car mandate: California air board questions cost, practicality – Members of California’s Air Resources Board today questioned the practicalities of their staff’s proposal to ban gas-powered vehicles, raising concerns over challenges in buying and charging electric cars.
Air Board Chair Liane Randolph asked staff to find more strategies to ensure that the state’s proposed mandate includes strong equity measures so that low-income residents face fewer barriers buying electric cars.
At a public hearing that stretched on for nine hours in Sacramento, auto company representatives, environmentalists and car owners showed up in droves to voice their concerns. Some said the rapid transition could harm the disadvantaged communities it aims to help, while others said the air board needs to take bolder action to address air pollution.
The rules would mandate increased sales of electric or other zero-emission vehicles in California, beginning with 35% of 2026 models. In 2035 sales of all new gas-powered cars would be banned. Currently only about 12% of new car sales in California are zero-emission vehicles.
…Throughout the economy, an estimated 64,700 jobs will be lost because of the mandate, according to the California Air Resources Board’s calculations. On the other hand, an estimated 24,900 jobs would be gained in other sectors, mostly in the power industry, so the estimated net loss by 2040 is 39,800 jobs, a minimal amount across the state’s entire economy.
Mechanics would be among the most affected — more than half of their current number of jobs would be lost over the next two decades if the mandate goes into effect, the air board estimated. Read More > at CalMatters
Shrinkflation: Cereal Brand Cuts Amount Per Box By 17%; Toilet Paper Brand Slashes Roll Size 24% – There’s inflation and then there’s shrinkflation.
Inflation is easy to spot: The product you bought last month now costs a dime more.
But shrinkflation is much more nefarious. The product you bought last month is the same price — the package may even appear to be the same size — but there’s less of it. In some cases, a good bit less.
“Notable brands to ‘shrinkflate’ their products in recent months as the American dollar continues to lessen in value include Charmin, Bounty, and Gatorade, which have all been downsized in recent months but have retained their previous prices,” the Daily Mail reported on Wednesday.
“Joining the parade of downsized products is cereal stalwart Honey Bunches of Oats, which has seen the weight of its standard box, previously 14.5 ounces, lessen to 12 ounces — a reduction of roughly 17 percent,” the U.K. paper said.
Angel Soft toilet paper has also reduced its size from 425 sheets per roll to 320, while Bounty paper towels have cut their rolls from 165 sheets per roll to 147 late last year. Gatorade also cut its bottle size from 32 ounces to 28 ounces. Read More > at the Daily Wire
The Empire of Fees – When I wake up in the morning at my home in Austin, Texas, I turn on the lights, and thereby provide a few cents to the city government’s electric company. I flush the toilet, owing a few more to Austin’s sewer service. When I pour myself a glass of water, the city water department gets a piece. After I get dressed and step outside, I watch the city take my trash, my recycling, and my compost—each pickup costs a few dollars. Sometimes, I discover a $25 ticket for parking my car in the wrong spot. Then I swallow my anger and drive down the MoPac highway, where I pay a toll to the Central Texas Regional Mobility Authority. I park in a garage downtown owned by the Austin Transportation Department, pay them a few bucks, and walk to my office. If I need to take a trip out of town, I pay $1.25 for a Capital Metro District bus to the city-owned Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, where, along with the price of my plane ticket, I pay a $5.60 fee for the benefit of being patted down by a TSA agent, a Passenger Facility Charge, and a small part in any rents the city charges restaurants and retailers. Only when I’m in the air does the drain to the government stop.
In one typical morning, I handed over money to several government bodies. But I didn’t pay any taxes—only fees, charges, and fines. These are the future of government in the United States.
The idea that government operates just by taxing and spending money is anachronistic. A growing share of its revenue comes from charges that the government imposes in exchange for its services or as a penalty for breaking its rules. In 1950, about 1 percent of Americans’ income went to charges from state and local governments. Today, that number is 4 percent. Include federal fees and charges, themselves the fastest-growing part of federal revenue, and that number rises to over 5.5 percent. Though largely hidden from the public, fees and charges account for most of the growth in government over the past 70 years and have become the top source of revenue for state and local governments.
Two factors drive this new reliance on special charges. First, governments are expanding the “businesses” they run—hospitals, universities, airports—and forcing users to pay more for them. Second, governments are using charges to avoid voter opposition to, and constitutional restrictions on, raising taxes. Those hoping to restrain the size of government need to understand the role of fees and charges. Though governments complain about private citizens evading taxes, the biggest tax evaders are governments themselves: charging citizens while avoiding anything that might be called a tax. In the process, they’re nickel-and-diming Americans from cradle to grave. Read More > at City Journal
California regulators approve state’s 1st robotic taxi fleet – California regulators on Thursday gave a robotic taxi service the green light to begin charging passengers for driverless rides in San Francisco, a first in a state where dozens of companies have been trying to train vehicles to steer themselves on increasingly congested roads.
The California Public Utilities Commission unanimously granted Cruise, a company controlled by automaker General Motors, approval to launch its driverless ride-hailing service. The regulators issued the permit despite safety concerns arising from Cruise’s inability to pick up and drop off passengers at the curb in its autonomous taxis, requiring the vehicles to double park in traffic lanes.
The ride-hailing service initially will consist of just 30 electric vehicles confined to transporting passengers in less congested parts of San Francisco from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. Those restrictions are designed to minimize chances of the robotic taxis causing property damage, injuries or death if something goes awry. It will also allow regulators to assess how the technology works before permitting the service to expand. Read More > in the Associated Press
Watchdog Report: At Least 20 Percent of Federal Pandemic Unemployment Dollars Wasted – The federal government sent billions in unemployment aid to ineligible beneficiaries and outright fraudsters during the pandemic, according to a new watchdog report. At least $78 billion in jobless benefits, and potentially much more, were misspent during fiscal year 2021, according to a Tuesday report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO).
“Not only is the system falling short in meeting the needs of workers and the broader economy, but the potential for huge financial losses could undermine public confidence in the stewardship of government funds,” said GAO head Gene Dorado in a press release yesterday, who called the report’s findings “extremely troubling.”
The Congressional watchdog agency has rated the unemployment insurance system as “high risk” for waste, fraud, and abuse and called on lawmakers and the administration to undertake immediate reforms.
The federal government’s unemployment insurance system—jointly administered by the Department of Labor and a patchwork of state agencies—has long struggled with making improper payments. This problem only got worse during the pandemic, when Congress dumped billions more into an expanded number of unemployment assistance programs.
The GAO found that the improper payment rate jumped from 9 percent in the pre-pandemic fiscal year 2020 to 18.9 percent the next year. That means nearly one in five unemployment insurance dollars went to an ineligible or overpaid beneficiary. Read More > at Reason
Oil Prices Are ‘Nowhere Near’ Peak Yet, Says Key OPEC Member UAE – Oil prices haven’t peaked yet because Chinese demand has yet to return to normal, said the energy minister from key OPEC member the United Arab Emirates.
The comments indicate that consumers can expect little respite from the soaring cost of energy. The UAE is the third largest producer in OPEC and one of the few countries in the world with the capacity to significantly increase crude output, yet it expects supply scarcity to worsen.
Al-Mazrouei warned that without more investment across the globe, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are not able to guarantee sufficient supplies of oil as demand fully recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.
The group agreed last week to open its oil taps a little faster in the summer months. That modest supply boost amounts to just 0.4% of global demand over July and August and comes after several months in which OPEC+ has struggled to hit its production targets. Read More > at BNN Bloomberg
The energy in nuclear waste could power the U.S. for 100 years, but the technology was never commercialized – There is enough energy in the nuclear waste in the United States to power the entire country for 100 years, and doing so could help solve the thorny and politically fraught problem of managing spent nuclear waste.
That’s according to Jess C. Gehin, an associate laboratory director at Idaho National Laboratory, one of the government’s premier energy research labs.
The technology necessary to turn nuclear waste into energy is known as a nuclear fast reactor, and has existed for decades. It was proven out by a United States government research lab pilot plant that operated from the 1960s through the 1990s.
For political and economic reasons, the technology has never been developed at commercial scale. Today, there’s an increased urgency to address climate change by decarbonizing out energy grids, and nuclear power has become part of the clean energy zeitgeist. As a result, nuclear fast reactors are once again getting a serious look. Read More > at CNBC
India and China Coal Production Surging By 700M Tons Per Year: That’s Greater Than All U.S. Coal Output – If you think the world is moving beyond coal, think again. The post-Covid economic rebound and surging electricity demand have resulted in big increases in coal prices and coal demand. Since January, the Newcastle benchmark price for coal has doubled. And over the past few weeks, China and India have announced plans to increase their domestic coal production by a combined total of 700 million tons per year. For perspective, US coal production this year will total about 600 million tons.
The surge in coal demand in China and India – as well as in the U.S., where coal use jumped by 17% last year – demonstrates two things: that the Iron Law of Electricity has not been broken, Second, it shows that it is far easier to talk about cutting emissions than it is to achieve significant cuts.
…As I point out in my latest book, A Question of Power, electricity is the world’s most important and fastest-growing form of energy. After writing that book, and doing further reporting, I coined the Iron Law of Electricity, which says that “people, businesses, and countries will do whatever they have to do to get the electricity they need.” The Iron Law matters because the electricity sector is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide emissions. And as the Iron Law states, politicians in countries like China and India are going to do everything they can to prevent (or reduce) blackouts, including burning more coal. Read More > at Real Clear Energy
Europe’s Unquenchable Natural Gas Thirst Is Sending Prices Soaring – The Henry Hub gas benchmark hit the highest in 14 years on Friday. If this was oil, everyone would be yelling about it. But gas has yet to garner the sort of attention oil receives on a regular basis. Maybe it will soon.
Natural gas prices in the United States are breaking record after record without losing momentum as factors serving to push them higher remain active and multiply. The surge in liquefied natural gas exports to Europe is one big reason, and rising demand as the weather becomes hotter is another. Meanwhile, drought has joined the list of factors at play.
The drought that began earlier this year is still gripping the Southwest, compromising hydropower generation and expanding, indicating that even less hydropower will be available as summer advances and with it, demand for air conditioning.
Swathes of the Southwest and the West Coast and the Pacific Northwest were in a state of drought ranging from severe to exceptional as of May 24, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, and while some parts of this region have gotten some precipitation, the situation remains challenging.
Natural gas inventories, meanwhile, are falling. In its latest weekly natural gas report, the Energy Information Administration reported that working gas inventories stood at 1.812 trillion cu ft in the week ending May 25, adding 80 billion cu m during the reporting period. Inventories are now 18 percent lower than they were a year ago and 15 percent lower than the five-year average for this time of the year. The agency noted in its report that demand in the Southwest and Texas was growing faster than supply could catch up, contributing to higher prices. And it was no longer about the drought. Read More > at Oil Price
How a battery shortage is hampering the U.S. switch to wind, solar power – U.S. renewable energy developers have delayed or scrapped several big battery projects meant to store electrical power on the grid in recent months, scuttling plans to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar energy.
At least a dozen storage projects meant to support growing renewable energy supplies have been postponed, canceled or renegotiated as labor and transport bottlenecks, soaring minerals prices, and competition from the electric vehicle industry crimp supply.
One previously unreported dispute over a delayed California storage project has even wound up in court.
The slowdown in utility-scale battery installations threatens the pace of the U.S. transition away from fossil fuels as the Biden administration seeks to decarbonize the grid by 2035. The delays could pose a threat to power reliability in states that already depend heavily on renewable energy like California.
Storing power is considered vital to the expansion of solar and wind energy because it allows electricity generated when the sun is shining or wind is blowing to be used at the end of the day when consumers need it most. Read More > at Reuters
Oregon overdose rates soared by 700% after decriminalizing ALL drugs last year: Officials admit millions in funding for treatment centers was held up and few offenders even bothered to use them but insist they will continue the scheme – Oregon’s first-in-the-nation scheme to decriminalize drugs and encourage those caught possessing them to seek medical help has been blighted with problems, officials admitted on Thursday – as one Republican politician said there had been a 700 percent in overdoses in her district in the last year.
The pioneering scheme, Ballot Measure 110, was approved by voters in November 2020, and went into effect in February 2021.
A person found with personal amounts of heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine and other drugs receives a citation, like a traffic ticket, with the maximum $100 fine waived if they call a hotline for a health assessment.
Yet of the 1,885 people who received tickets for personal possession in the first year, only 91 called the hotline, according to its non-profit operator, Lines For Life.
And on Thursday, those behind the scheme admitted that they had underestimated the effort required to distributed the $300 million in funds for the program, and only $40 million has been spent. Read More > in the Daily Mail
California bill to create heroin injection sites heads to State Assembly – A proposed California bill to authorize heroin injection sites in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Oakland, passed its final committee approval earlier this week and heads to the State Assembly.
Senate Bill 57, authored by Sen. Scott Wiener, (D- San Francisco), would authorize cities and counties to establish “safe consumption sites” where addicts could use illegal narcotics under supervision. Those accessing the “hygienic space supervised by trained staff” could consume pre-obtained drugs. Program staff would be trained to administer an “opioid antagonist” in the event of an overdose.
The sites would offer substance use disorder services and referrals to obtain overdose reversal medications. If the Assembly passes the legislation, it will return to the Senate for approval before heading to Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom’s desk. Read More > at PM.
Monarch butterflies make huge comeback – The monarch butterfly population in Mexico is on the rise again, following several years in which the number of butterflies had dwindled to worrying lows.
In a report from the World Wildlife Fund-Telmex Telcel Foundation Alliance and the National Commission of Protected Natural Areas in Mexico, experts say there has been a 35 increase in the number of butterflies wintering in Mexico’s mountaintop forest compared to previous seasons.
At wintering sites in central Mexico, entomologists from the WWF-Telmex Telcel Foundation Alliance and National Commission of Natural Protected Areas have been measuring the acreage of trees covered by these butterflies since 2004.
According to a newly released report, the monarch butterfly population this year covered 2.84 hectares (7 acres), compared to the 2.1 hectares (5.2 acres) that the butterflies covered last year. Read More > at UPI
Unexplained tax revenue growth vexes budget scorekeepers – The term “unexplained” doesn’t appear too often in official government documents, unless they are dealing with possible paranormal events, like UFOs. Yet the reference is sprinkled throughout the Congressional Budget Office’s latest budget and economic outlook to describe the recent strength in federal tax receipts that’s blown away prior estimates.
Individual income tax collections for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 are projected to land at their highest level as a share of the U.S. economy since the advent of the income tax in 1913. Overall federal tax revenue this year is expected to hit 19.6 percent of gross domestic product, a figure that’s been topped only three times: twice during World War II and again in 2000, before the dot-com bubble burst.
It’s not entirely unexplained; the CBO attributes much of the revenue growth this year and in the coming years to faster economic growth, higher wages and profits and capital gains realizations from elevated asset prices — and, yes, higher inflation.
Additional revenue comes from one-time measures like payroll taxes deferred during the pandemic that are now coming due, and from changes in estimations of foreign corporate profits in tax havens and low-tax jurisdictions. Read More > at Roll Call
Russia’s Ill-Fated Invasion of Ukraine: Lessons in Modern Warfare – Russia has failed to achieve most of its objectives in Ukraine because of poor military planning, significant logistical problems, low combat readiness, and other deficiencies, which undermined Russian military effectiveness. These and other challenges—including Ukrainian military efforts and Western aid—severely impacted Russian air, ground, cyber, and maritime operations. Russia’s failures will force the Russian military to fundamentally rethink its training practices, organizational structure, culture, logistics, recruitment and retention policies, and planning efforts. Nevertheless, Russia is still attempting a de facto annexation of parts of eastern and southern Ukraine that it controls.
First, the Russian military faced considerable logistics challenges, in part because of poor training and planning. During the Russian push to Kyiv in the early phase of the war, for example, Russian ground forces faced massive logistical and command and control challenges operating in contested areas inside of Ukraine. Without access to rail transport and with roads clogged with Russian vehicles, Russian ground forces failed to move fuel, munitions, spare parts, and other matériel quickly and efficiently to forward-deployed units. Supply lines could not keep up with the long combat pushes, and logistics vehicles were not properly protected. The effectiveness of Russian long-range strike—a key aspect of Russian military operations—was also severely impacted by logistical challenges, including an insufficient supply of precision-guided munitions.
Second, the Russian ground offensive appears to have been planned and executed based on poor assumptions about how the Ukrainian military—and the population—would respond, as well as how the West might react. Seizing and holding territory was a major political objective of Russian policymakers. But controlling territory in a foreign country with a hostile Ukrainian population was deeply problematic for the Russian military, particularly since the conflict began to resemble a “people’s war.”3 In addition, Russian forces failed to effectively integrate combined arms to seize and hold Ukrainian territory, including coordination between land power, air power, and long-range fires. The Russian invasion force was also far too small to achieve its objectives and neglected to block Ukraine’s western border and prevent the supply of foreign weapons, systems, fuel, and other aid to Ukraine. Read More > at CSIS
Mortgage demand hits 22-year low as interest rates rise – Mortgage demand sank to its lowest level in 22 years this week as rising interest rates and a lack of inventory cool demand among potential homebuyers.
The volume of mortgage loan applications sank by 6.5% for the week ending on June 3 compared to the previous week, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey.
The downturn occurred as the average contract interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances rising to 5.40% from 5.33% over the same period. Higher rates are adding to the financial squeeze on home shoppers who are facing record prices on the open market.
The MBA’s purchase index, a measure of the volume of applications for mortgages to buy homes, dropped 7% compared the previous week and was down 21% compared to the same week one year ago.
Refinance applications also moved lower, dropping 6% compared to last week and a whopping 75% year-over-year.
Mortgage rates have risen in recent months as the Federal Reserve initiates its plan to tighten monetary policy by hiking benchmark interest rates. The central bank is aiming to make credit more expensive in a bid to cool the economy and tamp down inflation that has reached four-decade highs. Read More > in the New York Post
Haven’t paid your Bay Area bridge tolls? Your car registration could be blocked – With a backlog of more than $184 million in unpaid bridge tolls and fines, Bay Area toll officials are mounting a crackdown that could result in hundreds of thousands of drivers having a hold placed on their car registration.
The Bay Area Toll Authority voted Wednesday to move ahead with the enforcement effort despite complaints from some advocates for low-income communities, who said the move could be devastating for those unable to pay.
The backlog has mostly piled up since March 2020 when the authority immediately removed human toll collectors from the seven state-owned bridges and began collecting all tolls electronically, using Fastrak toll tags or license plate readers to identify the vehicles.
Bridge users without Fastrak accounts are mailed an invoice. If it’s not paid within 21 days, they receive a late notice and a fine then a second late notice and fine, each with 30 days to pay. If the invoices remain unpaid, the authority requests that the DMV put a hold on the vehicle’s registration, which adds the unpaid tolls and penalties to the registration fee. Read More > in the San Francisco Chronicle
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